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Intermediate · Lesson 2 of 5Duration and convexity
Duration measures how sensitive a bond's price is to interest rates. Modified duration of 7 means a 1 percentage point rise in yields cuts the price by about 7%. Longer maturities and lower coupons mean higher duration.
In 2022, as central banks raised rates rapidly, long-duration government bond funds fell 15-30%, a reminder that "safe" bonds carry rate risk.
Convexity measures how duration itself changes. Ordinary bonds have positive convexity: prices rise more when yields fall than they drop when yields rise by the same amount. Mortgage-backed securities and callable bonds can have negative convexity.
Formula
ΔP/P ≈ -D_mod x Δy + ½ x Convexity x (Δy)²
Key takeaways
- Price change ≈ -Duration x Yield change.
- Long, low-coupon bonds have the most rate risk.
- Positive convexity helps bondholders.
Check your understanding
1. Modified duration 6, yields rise 0.5 percentage points. Approximate price change?
- -0.5%
- -3%
- -6%
- +3%
Show the answer
-3%. -6 x 0.5 = -3%.
2. Which bond has the highest duration?
- 2-year, 6% coupon
- 30-year, 2% coupon
- 5-year, 5% coupon
- 1-year, 0% coupon
Show the answer
30-year, 2% coupon. Long maturity and low coupon maximise duration.
Go deeper
- Wikipedia: Bond duration
- YouTube videos: bond duration convexity explained
- Investopedia: duration
- Wikipedia: Bond convexity
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